The WX5FWD SKYWARN™ team are volunteer radio operator liaisons for the Fort Worth National Weather Service (NWS) North Texas SKYWARN™ Spotters. During SKYWARN events, you are reporting information to our team and the NWS warning forecasters. Three goals of a storm spotter are to safely observe, identify and report conditions.

Weather spotters provide what's called "ground truth" to the National Weather Service and emergency weather management. Spotters are needed because, while radar is very good at helping the National Weather Service see what's going on in the upper atmosphere, it's unable to detect what's actually happening on the ground because of the curvature of the Earth. Knowing the "ground truth" about a weather event from the location can be the deciding factor to issue a warning.

CQ Field Day de W5D / WX5FWD - June 27-28, 2015

The Fort Worth NWS SKYWARN Radio Desk team will be active on several bands and modes during Field Day, Saturday-Sunday, June 27-28, from the Fort Worth National Weather Service Forecast Office. Our special event call sign is W5D. We hope to talk to you, and add your call sign and information to our log. We'll publish the bands and frequencies we are working periodically during the event, on this wx5fwd.org web site and via our WX5FWD Twitter account.

Although not part of Field Day, we may be monitoring local SKYWARN systems during Field Day, in case there is a need for weather related information. According to the Friday hazardous weather outlook from the Fort Worth WFO, "Thunderstorm chances will shift south into central texas this weekend. A few stronger storms containing gusty winds and small hail will be possible." Of course, if spotters are activated, we will switch to monitoring affected areas for spotter reports. See How Spotters May Contact the NWS Radio Desk

How Near-Miss Events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making

Abstract

Catherine H. Tinsley, Robin L. Dillon
McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057
{tinsleyc@georgetown.edu, rld9@georgetown.edu}
Matthew A. Cronin
School of Management, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia 22030, mcronin@gmu.edu

How Near-Miss Events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making (pdf)

In the aftermath of many natural and man-made disasters, people often wonder why those affected were underprepared, especially when the disaster was the result of known or regularly occurring hazards (e.g., hurricanes). We study one contributing factor: prior near-miss experiences. Near misses are events that have some nontrivial expectation of ending in disaster but, by chance, do not. We demonstrate that when near misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions (e.g., choosing not to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard). On the other hand, if near misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened, this will counter the basic “near-miss” effect and encourage more mitigation. We illustrate the robust- ness of this pattern across populations with varying levels of real expertise with hazards and different hazard contexts (household evacuation for a hurricane, Caribbean cruises during hurricane season, and deep-water oil drilling). We conclude with ideas to help people manage and communicate about risk.

NWS Hours

Attached is a spreadsheet of the 2014 Hours worked and a graph of all years that I have data.

We came up a little from the numbers in July with a couple of long events and some ice work on 12/31.

Michael Heskett
WB5QLD

Al Moller, a retired National Weather Service Forecaster, passed away early this morning

Thu, Jun 19, 2014 at 1:08 PM

Al Moller, a retired National Weather Service Forecaster, passed away early this morning, June 19, 2014. His wife Patti called our office today to give us this heartbreaking news.

Al started his NWS career in 1974, and he held forecaster positions in Lubbock TX and Fort Worth TX. Al retired from the NWS in 2009 as a Senior Forecaster at WFO Fort Worth.

Al will be remembered for his passions: severe weather meteorology, spotter training, storm chasing, and photography.

The announcement on services is pending.

Greg Patrick
National Weather Service
WFO Fort Worth TX

Wyatt McCray Awarded Radio at Ham-Com

hamcom2014award_sm.jpg

Wyatt McCray is awarded a Kenwood TH-K20 radio by Mike Heskett (WB5QLD) of the WX5FWD NWS Skywarn Radio Desk team after passing the amateur radio license exam at Ham-Com. Wyatt is one of younger new hams that passed the license exam this year.

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