From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Monday, 23 Jan 2011 12:52 CST

Good afternoon everyone,

Widespread rain is expected to develop across nearly all of north Texas Tuesday afternoon and continue into Thursday. The rainfall will be welcome in most areas plagued by recent drought conditions, but we have some concerns that locally heavy rains will cause at least some minor flooding issues. Widespread severe weather is not expected with this system, but an isolated severe thunderstorm will be possible Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

OVERVIEW

A strong and slow-moving upper level system will move across extreme northern Mexico through Wednesday before lifting out across Texas on Thursday. An unseasonably moist airmass will spread north from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and lead to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity by late Tuesday. A north-south oriented stationary front will develop across the eastern parts of north Texas Tuesday night and focus very heavy rainfall into Wednesday morning. WIth so much moisture and widespread rain activity, the instability needed for organized severe thunderstorms will likely not develop.

Most of north Texas will receive 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but an axis of total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches can be expected near the stationary front. At this time, the heaviest rains and greatest potential for flooding is expected to occur in the Sulphur Springs, Canton, Corsicana, Groesbeck, Palestine, and Athens areas. The heaviest rains are expected to remain just east of both the DFW and Waco areas, but 1 to 2 inches of rain is still expected in the DFW and Waco areas.

Please review the assessment of the 2011 Joplin tornado from the NWS Service Assessments.

Preface

On May 22, 2011, one of the deadliest tornadoes in United States history struck Joplin, Missouri, directly killing 158 people and injuring over 1,000. The tornado, rated EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with maximum winds over 200 mph, affected a significant part of a city with a population of more than 50,000 and a population density near 1,500 people per square mile. As a result, the Joplin tornado was the first single tornado in the United States to result in over 100 fatalities since the Flint, Michigan, tornado of June 8, 1953.

Because of the rarity and historical significance of this event, a regional Service Assessment team was formed to examine warning and forecast services provided by the National Weather Service. Furthermore, because of the large number of fatalities that resulted from a warned tornado event, this Service Assessment will provide additional focus on dissemination, preparedness, and warning response within the community as they relate to NWS services.

Service Assessments provide a valuable contribution to ongoing efforts by the National Weather Service to improve the quality, timeliness, and value of our products and services. Findings and recommendations from this assessment will improve techniques, products, services, and information provided to our partners and the American public.

Lynn P. Maximuk
Director, Central Region
National Weather Service
July 2011

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