From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Wednesday, 25 May 2016 12:28 CDT
The weather over North and Central Texas thus far this week has been quiet, but that will change as an upper level system begins to impact our region as early as this afternoon, but especially Thursday into Friday.
OVERVIEW: The big picture overview is that all of the ingredients are in place for a long duration weather event with heavy rainfall and severe weather. The uncertainty in this pattern is that pinpointing the specific times that certain locations will see hazardous weather is not yet possible. We are confident that somewhere over the eastern half of the state of Texas could see over 8 inches of rain with this event, but we are unable to determine whether that will fall in our region or farther south across south central or southeast Texas yet. Due to the unstable air in place, severe weather will be a threat at times, but favored locations and timing are also somewhat uncertain.
BOTTOM LINE: Emergency management, government officials, media, and other core emergency response partners will need to actively monitor weather forecasts through Friday evening due to the potential for significant hazardous weather including severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flooding rains. Forecast confidence is low to moderate, so significant changes may occur to the forecast quickly as the weather trends become apparent to us.