Storm Prediction Center
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 10 17:37:02 UTC 2025
No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 10 17:37:02 UTC 2025.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Oct 10 17:37:02 UTC 2025
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 10 17:37:02 UTC 2025.
SPC Oct 10, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...THE CO PLATEAU...AND THE NC OUTER BANKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon into the evening across the eastern Great Basin and the Colorado Plateau. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over the Outer Banks of North Carolina during the early morning Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin and the CO Plateau... A broad upper trough will move east across the West as a basal shortwave impulse ejects across the Great Basin during Saturday afternoon and evening. This evolution will yield a swath of strengthening mid/upper-level southwesterlies. This will be favorably timed with peak surface heating across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the CO Plateau. In the wake of weak morning convection across parts of AZ across the Four Corners, scattered to widespread convection will occur in the afternoon along/ahead of the sharpening Pacific cold front as it pushes east. While MLCAPE will remain weak, owing to progressively poorer mid-level lapse rates with southeast extent and cooler surface temperatures/dew points to the northwest, strengthening deep-layer speed shear will yield elongation of a fairly straight-line hodograph. A few supercells are likely, although the weak mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy should support primarily a marginal severe hail threat. A tornado is possible in the Four Corners vicinity where boundary-layer moisture is greater. Given the degree of convective coverage, upscale growth into clusters/short-line segments should occur, fostering potential for sporadic severe gusts into early/mid-evening across the CO Plateau. ...NC Outer Banks... Morning NCEP guidance has trended closer to the coast with the evolution of a gradually deepening surface cyclone off the South Atlantic coast. This may result in the surface warm front advancing across the Outer Banks between 06-12Z Sunday, with a conditionally supportive environment for a surface-based supercell. While the bulk of surface-based convection should remain confined offshore through the period, there's enough signal to warrant a low-probability threat of a brief tornado/severe gust. ..Grams.. 10/10/2025 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...THE CO PLATEAU...AND THE NC OUTER BANKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon into the evening across the eastern Great Basin and the Colorado Plateau. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over the Outer Banks of North Carolina during the early morning Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin and the CO Plateau... A broad upper trough will move east across the West as a basal shortwave impulse ejects across the Great Basin during Saturday afternoon and evening. This evolution will yield a swath of strengthening mid/upper-level southwesterlies. This will be favorably timed with peak surface heating across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the CO Plateau. In the wake of weak morning convection across parts of AZ across the Four Corners, scattered to widespread convection will occur in the afternoon along/ahead of the sharpening Pacific cold front as it pushes east. While MLCAPE will remain weak, owing to progressively poorer mid-level lapse rates with southeast extent and cooler surface temperatures/dew points to the northwest, strengthening deep-layer speed shear will yield elongation of a fairly straight-line hodograph. A few supercells are likely, although the weak mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy should support primarily a marginal severe hail threat. A tornado is possible in the Four Corners vicinity where boundary-layer moisture is greater. Given the degree of convective coverage, upscale growth into clusters/short-line segments should occur, fostering potential for sporadic severe gusts into early/mid-evening across the CO Plateau. ...NC Outer Banks... Morning NCEP guidance has trended closer to the coast with the evolution of a gradually deepening surface cyclone off the South Atlantic coast. This may result in the surface warm front advancing across the Outer Banks between 06-12Z Sunday, with a conditionally supportive environment for a surface-based supercell. While the bulk of surface-based convection should remain confined offshore through the period, there's enough signal to warrant a low-probability threat of a brief tornado/severe gust. ..Grams.. 10/10/2025 Read more
SPC Oct 10, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple of severe storms may occur across the Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity this afternoon into evening. ...Lower Colorado River Valley/southern Great Basin... Height falls/flow aloft will gradually increase late today as the West Coast upper trough amplifies and spreads southeastward toward the Great Basin. Preceding it, rich low-level moisture is present across the Lower Colorado River Valley early today, with this moisture continuing to spread northward. Modest destabilization should occur this afternoon particularly on the western periphery of residual early day precipitation and cloud cover across Arizona into southern Utah. At least weak instability, combined with increasing mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough/low, may support a potentially severe storm or two including a couple of transient supercells. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 10/10/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple of severe storms may occur across the Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity this afternoon into evening. ...Lower Colorado River Valley/southern Great Basin... Height falls/flow aloft will gradually increase late today as the West Coast upper trough amplifies and spreads southeastward toward the Great Basin. Preceding it, rich low-level moisture is present across the Lower Colorado River Valley early today, with this moisture continuing to spread northward. Modest destabilization should occur this afternoon particularly on the western periphery of residual early day precipitation and cloud cover across Arizona into southern Utah. At least weak instability, combined with increasing mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough/low, may support a potentially severe storm or two including a couple of transient supercells. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 10/10/2025 Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the period. At the same time, a related cold front will move southeastward across the Upper Midwest. Behind the front, breezy north-northwesterly surface winds (sustained around 15 mph) will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the period. At the same time, a related cold front will move southeastward across the Upper Midwest. Behind the front, breezy north-northwesterly surface winds (sustained around 15 mph) will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more