NWS UPDATE: Pattern Change Next Week

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Friday, 15 December 2017 10:21 CDT

Bottom Line

The weather pattern is expected to change by next weekend and beyond (Dec 22-27th). We are quite confident that this pattern change will bring colder temperatures to North and Central Texas around the Christmas Holiday.

Some of our forecast guidance produces wintry precipitation during this time, and some guidance does not. We have all seen some of the raw model forecasts showing ice, snow, rain, and all possible combinations. We will know much more about this system next week. Unfortunately, it does appear that weather in some form or fashion will play a part of all of our plans this Christmas.

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Alternate Possibilities

What we are certain of:

  • There will be a pattern change bringing colder weather to the region by next weekend - after next Thursday, December 21st

What we are less certain of:

  • Pretty much everything else
  • Position of the upper level features / moisture / lift / etc.
    • The long range forecast guidance is highly variable and inconsistent.
    • This forecast is 10 days or more away - anyone giving a specific forecast of precipitation type or intensity is pure speculation or giving raw model output.

FAQ

When is the next email? The next email will be sent Monday, December 18th around 10 AM. No emails will be sent this weekend.

Is there a possibility of winter precipitation around Christmas? Yes.

Is there a possibility of no winter precipitation around Christmas? Yes

Resources

In the meantime, please follow official forecasts and information at the following sites.

National Weather Service Fort Worth Homepage

Hourly Forecasts (Click your location)

National Weather Service Fort Worth Weather Tabs

National Weather Service Fort Worth Hazard Pages

Hydro Decision Support Tool at WGRFC to Create a Specific Map

Mark