NWS UPDATE: Severe/Heavy Rainfall Potential Later Today and Tonight

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Saturday, 12 August 2017 10:20 CDT

Bottom Line

Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening across North Texas in the vicinity of a weak front. A complex of storms may affect locations along and north of Interstate 20 later this evening and overnight which could lead to localized flooding. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect for parts of North Texas along the Red River from Gainesville east to Sulphur Springs for the overnight hours.

Overview

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across North Texas by mid/late afternoon and continue into the evening. Some of these storms could become severe with primarily a damaging wind threat, as well as the potential for severe hail. There is a small chance for a brief tornado spin-up with storms located immediately along the front. Later tonight, a complex of storms may move along or just south of the Red River which could lead to localized flash flooding. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact path the overnight thunderstorms will take, but areas north of I-20 to the Red River will have the highest chance for heavy rainfall.

Areas of Concern

Locations along and north of I-20 have the highest potential for severe storms and flash flooding through Saturday night. The chance for storms decreases (but is not 0) south of I-20.

Afternoon

tonight

FFA

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types

Threats
Note: Lightning is a hazard with 100% of all thunderstorms. Lightning is not explicitly listed here.

Expected Timing

Timing

Forecast Confidence

Confidence

Alternate Possibilities

What we are certain of:

  • Instability and moisture will be sufficient to support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the vicinity of a weak frontal boundary.
  • The best rain/storms chances will be generally along and north of the I-20 corridor.
  • Threat for strong/severe storms this afternoon and evening with a main hazard of damaging winds.
  • Threat for heavy rainfall in the vicinity of the Red River valley overnight.

What we are less certain of:

  • A small tornado threat may exist near the boundary.
  • Exact track of the complex of thunderstorms overnight.

FAQ

Is rain guaranteed? Not for everyone. Many areas south of the Metroplex will not see rainfall. Heaviest rain will be along and north of I-20.

How much rain is expected? Some areas north of I-20 could receive more than 3" of rain in a short amount of time.

Is severe weather guaranteed? No. The severe threat will be highest this afternoon and diminish overnight.

How big will the hail be? If hail occurs, we expect it to be less than 1.5".

Will there be tornadoes? Unlikely, but not completely out of the question.

When will the next email update be sent? This is the last email for this event.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us through the usual means
Twitter: @NWSFortWorth
Facebook: NWSDallasFortWorth

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National Weather Service Fort Worth Homepage

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National Weather Service Fort Worth Hazard Pages

Matt Stalley/Juan Hernandez/Jason Dunn