NWS Update: Storm Potential for Today (Wednesday)

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Wednesday, 16 May 2018 9:52 CDT

Bottom Line

There will be a low chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly west of I-35.

Overview

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will redevelop across the region this afternoon and continue through tonight. Several old outflow boundaries and subtle disturbances aloft will combine with plentiful moisture and strong afternoon heating for the development of a few severe storms, especially west of I-35 where instability is expected to be the highest. Steering winds aloft over our area are weak. Initial storm motions may be erratic, but general storm motion will be south-southeast.

Gusty downburst winds, hail, brief heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes are expected with any strong or severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Widespread heavy rainfall is unlikely, but if any locations were to receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, then brief flooding would be possible.

Areas of Concern

This Afternoon

Concern

This Evening

Concern

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types

Threats

General Timing

Timing

Forecaster Confidence

Confidence

Contingency Planning

What We Are Certain Of:

  • The environment is unfavorable for organized, widespread severe weather due to weak winds aloft.
  • Localized strong storm clusters containing gusty downburst winds and hail are possible, especially west of I-35.
  • Isolated severe weather threat is expected this afternoon and evening.
  • Storms will likely move along fast enough to minimize any risk for widespread flooding.

What We Are Watching:

  • How unstable the atmosphere becomes by this afternoon.
  • Location of subtle old storm outflow boundaries and subtle disturbances aloft and where they track. These features will play a role on storm evolution and intensity this afternoon and evening.
  • Storm intensity and coverage this afternoon is uncertain, as is their longevity and intensity as the form, or move into our area.

FAQ

Will there be large hail? Hail in excess of the size of quarters is possible this afternoon and evening, mainly west of I-35 where it will be more unstable.
What about damaging winds? Gusty downburst winds over 60 mph are possible with more intense activity. The majority of wind gusts from storms are expected to be sub-severe.
What about tornadoes? Tornadoes are unlikely due to weak winds through the atmosphere. However, a quick spin up tornado cannot be ruled out.
Will there be flooding? Localized minor flooding is possible due to slow-moving or training thunderstorms.
When will the next email update be sent? This will likely be the last email for this week, as an upper high is expected to strengthen late week into the weekend.

Logo

Additional Resources

National Weather Service Fort Worth Homepage

Hourly Forecasts (Click your location)

National Weather Service Fort Worth Weather Tabs

National Weather Service Fort Worth Hazard Pages

NWSChat

Who’s eligible for NWSChat