NWS UPDATE: Active Weekend Weather

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Friday, 19 May 2017 11:26 CDT

Bottom Line
An active 36 hours is in store for North and Central Texas. Thunderstorms are possible today, with severe weather most likely between 4 PM and Midnight. Rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue overnight and Saturday in North Texas and will continue Saturday night and Sunday in Central Texas. Most outdoor events will have the potential for delays due to thunderstorms and/or severe thunderstorms.

Overview
This weather pattern is slightly more complicated than a typical Dr. Sheldon Cooper dinner order. There is a cold front in the Texas panhandle currently, and this front will slowly make its way into North and Central Texas tonight and Saturday. The upper level energy remains parked over southern Colorado, and the main energy will also move slowly east this weekend. Thunderstorms are firing along a dryline and outflow boundary from near San Angelo to Wichita Falls. A few of these morning storms will make it into our northwest counties by Noon, before the entire area spreads eastward. Tonight, as the surface and upper level energy moves east, thunderstorms will become more widespread. Severe thunderstorm chances will decrease after midnight, yet the rain and localized heavy rain will continue through Saturday morning. Rain will then continue (but will not be raining at all areas at all times) through Saturday evening, before the rain moves south of Interstate 20. Average rainfall amounts are expected to be 1-3" through Monday. Most of this rain will be welcome.

Areas of Concern
The primary areas we are concerned about are:

friday

sunday

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types

threats

Note: Lightning is a hazard with 100% of all thunderstorms. Lightning is not explicitly listed here.

Expected Timing

Timing

Friday:

fridaytiming

Forecast Confidence

Confidence

Alternate Possibilities
What we are certain of:

  • Ample moisture, instability, and wind shear for severe thunderstorms.
  • Major surface features (cold front, dry line) are well known.
  • Typical time of year for strong to severe thunderstorms.

What we are less certain of:

  • Like yesterday, the areas of lift remain a bit uncertain.
  • Minor, but important surface features not yet known (outflow boundaries, mini-wind shifts. Positions of these may determine the position of strongest storms)
  • Rainfall amounts. We should average 1-3" for most areas. Except for areas in Eastland or Comanche County, these amounts won't cause widespread flooding.
  • 3 inches of rain in less than 4 hours will likely be the saturation point, meaning runoff or small stream nuisance flooding would begin to occur.

FAQ
Is rain guaranteed? For most areas, yes. At least through Monday. Rain will not be continuous the entire time.
Is severe weather guaranteed? No. Many areas will not see any severe thunderstorms.
How big will the hail be? Large hail, up to 2" diameter is possible in the strongest storms.
Will there be tornadoes? Tornadoes can not be ruled out. However, the tornado risk should be isolated in nature.
When will the next email update be sent? One more email will be sent during the day on Saturday. However, for most of us, the tactical event will start this afternoon.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us through the usual means
Twitter: @NWSFortWorth
Facebook: NWSDallasFortWorth

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Lamont Bain, Mark Fox, Ted Ryan