NWS UPDATE: Additional Heavy Rain and Severe Weather Potential

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Friday, 23 February 2018 9:44 CST

Bottom Line

Additional waves of rainfall will continue to result in flooding concerns today and Saturday. In addition, severe storms are possible throughout the day Saturday, especially near the I-35 corridor and points eastward. Hail, tornadoes, and additional flooding are all possible on Saturday.

Overview

More widespread thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will occur throughout Friday and Saturday with 1-2 inches of additional rainfall expected for much of North and Central Texas (with locally higher amounts). A Flood Watch remains in effect for much of North Texas through Saturday afternoon as these areas have received the most rainfall so far. Any additional rainfall will quickly runoff the saturated grounds and lead to flooding. The primary concern continues to be rises on rivers, creeks, and streams, but isolated instances of flash flooding are also possible.

On Saturday, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop around daybreak. These will initially support a threat for hail in the vicinity of the I-35 corridor. Towards midday and into Saturday afternoon, these storms will move east and encounter conditions favorable for tornadoes to occur. Throughout this time, additional heavy rainfall will be supportive of additional flooding concerns, including some localized flash flooding. Rainfall should finally come to an end area-wide Saturday evening as it tapers off from west to east.

Areas of Concern

Concern

Saturday

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types

Threats

Expected Timing

  • Periodic heavy rain/isolated flooding today through tonight.
  • Strong to severe thunderstorms possible beginning Saturday morning lasting into the afternoon.

Timing

Forecast Confidence

Confidence

Alternate Possibilities

What we are certain of:

  • Any additional moderate to heavy rainfall will be capable of flooding due to the saturated grounds.
  • Some strong to severe storms will occur on Saturday, especially near and east of I-35, along with a continued threat for heavy rain and flooding.

What we are less certain of:

  • The westward extend of the severe weather threat. Strong to severe storms are increasingly likely the farther east your location, but could develop a bit farther west of I-35 Saturday morning.
  • Precise locations/extent of particular severe weather threats

FAQ

Is severe weather guaranteed? No. But we are expecting at least a few reports of severe weather tomorrow.
How big will the hail be? The strongest storms could produce hail up to golfball size.
Is heavy rain guaranteed? No. But any additional rainfall will be capable of additional flooding.
How much rain will fall? Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches possible through Saturday, mainly in areas east of I-35, with isolated spots picking up 3”.
When will the next email update be sent? This will be the final email for this event, barring any major changes to the forecast.

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