NWS UPDATE: Strong Cold Front and Storms Late Tuesday/Early Wednesday

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Monday, 4 September 2017 11:04 CDT

Bottom Line

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning late Tuesday afternoon and continuing Tuesday night. Main emphasis for storms will be across Central Texas after midnight Wednesday morning.

Overview

A strong cold front and upper level system are expected to move across North and Central Texas by Tuesday Night, with the cold front moving toward the Upper Texas Coast by sunrise Wednesday. High temperatures ahead of the cold front will be hot with highs well into the 90s. The hot temperatures will combine with rich moisture across the area to produce modest instability. Combined with modest wind shear, a few organized strong or even brief severe storms are possible by Tuesday evening. Brief and minor street flooding will be possible, but the progressive movement of the front and upper disturbance will mitigate any potential for widespread heavy rainfall and flooding.

The threat for strong to severe storms should end from north to south by, or shortly after midnight Tuesday night, as the cold front moves south toward the Texas coastline. Otherwise, cooler and breezy conditions are expected Wednesday with decreasing clouds.

Areas of Concern

Storm chances late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night:

0_coldfront

Breezy and cooler Wednesday, with cool mornings/mild afternoons through the end of the week:

0_outlook

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types

Threats

Expected Timing

Timeline

Forecast Confidence

ThreatConfidence

Alternate Possibilities

What we are certain of:

  • A strong cold front will move into the area by Tuesday evening.
  • A strong upper disturbance will be delayed until Tuesday night/Early Wednesday morning.
  • Isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop sometime by early Tuesday evening, and continue through Tuesday night into Central Texas.
  • High temperatures well into the 90s ahead of the cold front that will increase instability.
  • A few strong storms with very gusty down-burst winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy downpours.
  • Widespread severe and flooding is NOT expected due to progressive movement of the front and upper level system. However, an isolated severe storm or two with damaging winds, brief heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning is possible Tuesday evening.

What we are less certain of:

  • Exact timing of the cold front and upper disturbance providing lift for storm development.
  • Coverage and exact timing of thunderstorms and impacts.
  • Severe weather, as the environment and shear is marginal.
  • Exact amounts of rainfall across the area.

FAQ

Is rain guaranteed?
Not everyone will see rainfall.

How much rain can I expect?
Most areas will see less than 0.50", with isolated amounts near 1" possible east of I-35/35E.

Is severe weather guaranteed?
No, but an isolated threat for damaging winds is possible ahead of the cold front.

Do I have to worry about hail?
Any hail would be small and likely less than nickel size, if it occurs at all.

Will there be tornadoes?
Very unlikely, but the threat is non-zero.

Will there be flooding?
Unlikely, due to the progressive southward movement of the surface cold front, upper level system, and resultant storms.

When will the next email update be sent?
If forecasts through tonight show an increasing severe weather threat, then another email update will be issued later Tuesday morning. If the threat remains the same, or lessens, then this heads up email would likely be the last one sent for this event.

Martello/Carlaw

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us through the usual means
Twitter: @NWSFortWorth
Facebook: NWSDallasFortWorth

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