NWS UPDATE: Wintry Precipitation Tonight/Wednesday

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Monday, 15 January 2018 10:14 CST

Bottom Line

A very strong cold front will move through North Texas this afternoon followed by areas of light rain and wintry precipitation tonight into early Tuesday morning. Travel disruptions and problems on area roads will be possible through Wednesday. Impacts are expected to be most significant south of Interstate 20. See graphics below for a depiction of the current warnings/advisories.

Overview

As the strong cold front moves through North and Central TX, temperatures will fall to below freezing near the Red River by 6pm, in the Metroplex by around 9pm and in the Waco/Temple/Killeen areas by midnight. Light rain is expected to develop along the cold front late this afternoon and will continue into the evening hours. As the cold air deepens, the light rain is expected to transition to a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. This precipitation is expected to continue through most of the overnight hours with the heaviest amounts and most significant impacts occurring mainly south of I-20 through the Waco/Temple/Killeen areas. Impacts to roads and bridges are expected to continue into Tuesday morning. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 20s through the day Tuesday which would allow icy roads to persist.

Areas of Concern

Here are the latest Warnings and Advisories across North and Central Texas. The greatest impacts are expected across the pink shaded areas into Wednesday.

Concern

Timing of Precipitation

Concern

Freezing Cold Tuesday Night

Temperatures will plummet into the single digits overnight Tuesday night mainly north of I-20 to the Red River. A HARD FREEZE WATCH is in effect for the areas shaded in blue.

Concern

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types

Threats

Note: "Cold" means temperatures below normal and wind chills in the 20s or below.

Expected Timing

Timing

Forecast Confidence

Confidence

Alternate Possibilities

What we are certain of:

  • A strong cold front will move through North and Central TX today sending temperatures to below freezing tonight.
  • Light rain will transition to a wintry mix after dark and continue through the overnight hours.
  • Impacts to roads and bridges may continue into Wednesday as temperatures are not expected to rise above freezing on Tuesday.
  • A hard freeze is expected Tuesday night with temperatures falling to below 10 degrees in some areas.

What we are less certain of:

  • Exact location of heaviest amounts of wintry precipitation.
  • Exact timing of precipitation transition.
  • Freezing rain accumulation. Precipitation may transition to sleet then snow faster resulting in less freezing rain and ice.

FAQ

Is winter precipitation guaranteed? Yes but not for all areas. The greatest threat will be south of I-20 through late tonight with impacts persisting into Wednesday.
Is it possible that the current warnings/advisories get expanded? Yes we will continue to monitor the latest trends and expand the warnings if needed.
When will the next email update be sent? A final email will be sent Tuesday morning with an update on any impacts/cold temperatures or if the forecast changes significantly over the next several hours.

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--
Jason Dunn - Meteorologist
National Weather Service
Fort Worth, TX