NWS UPDATE: Independence Day Forecast

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Tuesday, 4 July 2017 11:36 CDT


Happy Independence Day, everyone

Bottom Line
Scattered thunderstorms remain a possibility across North Texas today, especially late this afternoon. It bears repeating what we mentioned yesterday: on a boat, camping, at a park, in a backyard - folks in North and Central Texas should maintain access to weather information through the remainder of the Independence Day holiday.

Overview
While no one day is a complete repeat of another, today (and tonight) will be pretty close. The heat is on this afternoon, with heat indices over 100 across portions of Central Texas, despite highs "only" in the 90s. Most of today will be quiet, with only scattered thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and early evening. Around midnight, the next complex of thunderstorms will develop to the north, and are expected to move across North Texas in the middle of the night, before the complex fizzles out after daybreak.

Areas of Concern

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Timeline_4th

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types

Threats


Note: Lightning is a hazard with 100% of all thunderstorms. Lightning is not explicitly listed here.

Expected Timing

Timing

Forecast Confidence

Confidence

Alternate Possibilities
What we are certain of:

  • Overnight thunderstorms temporarily stabilized much of the area.
  • Rain and thunderstorm chances highest after midnight.
  • Most areas will be thunderstorm free during the evening hours. (Not necessarily all...but most)

What we are less certain of:

  • The role of any boundaries (if any) We've kept small chances for thunderstorms today because of some instability and heat, and the decaying complex of thunderstorms from overnight.
  • Locations of scattered thunderstorms.
  • Rainfall amounts. Some storms will produce 1-2" of rain. Some storms will produce much lower amounts.

FAQ
Is rain guaranteed? No. Best chances will once again be in the north.
Is severe weather guaranteed? Most areas will not see severe weather. A few severe storms are possible, with strong winds being the primary hazard.
How big will the hail be? Hail, if any, should be dime sized or smaller.
Will there be tornadoes? Tornadoes are highly unlikely.
Will there be thunderstorms between 7 PM and 10 PM Tonight? They are possible, but the higher potential for storms will be after midnight tonight.
When will the next email update be sent? Another email may be sent Wednesday morning.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us through the usual means.
Twitter: @NWSFortWorth
Facebook: NWSDallasFortWorth

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