NWS Update: Severe Storm and Flood Threat Today

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Thursday, 19 March 2020 8:55 CDT

Bottom Line
Thunderstorms this morning should dissipate by midday. Scattered thunderstorms will redevelop during the afternoon hours as a surface trough moves in from the northwest. A few strong to severe storms with damaging winds and large hail will be possible, mainly east of the I-35 corridor. Localized flash flooding will also be a concern across especially the northern counties where a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 pm CDT and where soils are oversaturated from recent rainfall. Widespread 4 to 7 inch totals have already occurred over the past week within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Overview
A strong upper level disturbance moving into the Southern Plains today will ignite scattered showers and thunderstorms along an approaching surface trough. Ongoing morning rain and storms should continue dissipating through midday, with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping later in the afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes. Thunderstorms are not expected to be as widespread as the past few days, but isolated amounts upwards to an inch or more will be possible with any storms and could produce additional flooding or flash flooding across North Texas due to oversaturated soils. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 pm CDT this evening. In addition, area rivers, creeks, and streams are already swollen across North Texas with additional rainfall only exacerbating the ongoing flooding currently occurring across many areas along and north of I-20. River flooding across this area will continue for several days, possibly a week due to additional runoff.

Areas, Timing, and Potential Impacts
Flash Flood Watch
Severe Weather Potential Thursday Afternoon
Severe Weather Outlook

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types
Threats

Forecaster Confidence
Confidence

General Timing
Timing

Note: This timeline represents when significant weather may occur in ANY part of our 46-county area.

What We Are Certain Of:

  • Additional isolated to scattered storms redeveloping this afternoon in advance of an approaching surface boundary with the best chances along and east of I-35.
  • Locally heavy rainfall upward to an inch or more may accompany some storms.
  • Any additional rainfall across North Texas and within the Flash Flood Watch area may produce flash flooding, as well prolong ongoing river flooding.
  • A few severe storms will be possible during the afternoon, primarily along and east of I-35. The primary threats are damaging winds and hail up to quarter size or slightly larger.

What We Are Less Certain Of:

  • Exactly where storms will redevelop. Recent guidance varies between initiation just west of I-35, to east of I-35. These trends will be assessed through the day.
  • Where any localized heavy rainfall occurs. It will not take much for heavier rainfall to run off and cause flash flooding, especially along and north of I-20 where soils are oversaturated and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect.

FAQs:

How much rain will there be? Additional, very localized amounts between 1 and 2 inches are possible where thunderstorms occur. This is on top of the rain that has fallen this morning and over the past few days.

Will there be severe weather? Not as certain as last night’s event, but still possible, especially along and east of I-35 where higher instability will be present this afternoon.

Will there be flash flooding? Isolated instances are possible across the Flash Flood Watch area where soils are currently oversaturated and runoff occurs quickly. Any short fuse flooding is not expected to be as widespread as in previous days.

What about the rivers? Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing across many of our main stem rivers and their associated tributaries in North-Central Texas. Any additional rainfall will run off directly into these watersheds, only aggravating ongoing river, stream, and/or creek flooding. Due to dam or spillway releases on these tributaries, main stem river flooding is expected to continue through the weekend as more rain chances arrive.

When will the next email update be sent? This is the last email for this particular event.

Additional Resources
National Weather Service Fort Worth Homepage
Hourly Forecasts (Click your location)
NWS Fort Worth Winter Briefing Dashboard:
NWS Fort Worth Hazard Pages
NWSChat
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