wd5m's blog

A few operational thoughts for SKYWARN spotters regarding the WX5FWD Radio Desk

Radio propagation physics and limited resources prevent the NWS radio desk from DIRECT access on many repeaters in the North Texas county warning area (CWA). With the CWA covering 46 counties, the radio desk has direct coverage for the nearest 8 to 12 county spotter repeaters from the Fort Worth office. Despite direct radio coverage limitations, the NWS is capable of receiving spotter reports from all 46 counties.

How Near-Miss Events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making


Catherine H. Tinsley, Robin L. Dillon
McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057
{tinsleyc@georgetown.edu, rld9@georgetown.edu}
Matthew A. Cronin
School of Management, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia 22030, mcronin@gmu.edu

How Near-Miss Events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making (pdf)

In the aftermath of many natural and man-made disasters, people often wonder why those affected were underprepared, especially when the disaster was the result of known or regularly occurring hazards (e.g., hurricanes). We study one contributing factor: prior near-miss experiences. Near misses are events that have some nontrivial expectation of ending in disaster but, by chance, do not. We demonstrate that when near misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions (e.g., choosing not to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard). On the other hand, if near misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened, this will counter the basic “near-miss” effect and encourage more mitigation. We illustrate the robust- ness of this pattern across populations with varying levels of real expertise with hazards and different hazard contexts (household evacuation for a hurricane, Caribbean cruises during hurricane season, and deep-water oil drilling). We conclude with ideas to help people manage and communicate about risk.

National Weather Service In Fort Worth: Sounding The Alarm For North Texas

National Weather Service In Fort Worth: Sounding The Alarm For North Texas by SHELLEY KOFLER and KERA News for North Texas

The story link above describes where members of our #SKYWARN radio desk team can be found during weather events in# North Texas. As events intensify and expand across north Texas, we may have up to four to six radio operators monitoring radio repeaters and IRLP or EchoLink linked radio systems for SKYWARN "ground truth" weather reports. We then relay the severe or significant information to NWS warning forecasters directly in front of us across the desk wall. Well trained public SKYWARN volunteers who observe, identify and report severe weather details are the source of our information, and vital to this warning process.

Severe Weather Preparedness Week, What We’re Doing to Prepare

Today marks the start of the first ever National Severe Weather Preparedness Week. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently partnered to designate April 22-28, 2012, as National Severe Weather Preparedness Week, and is calling upon all Americans, in every area of the country, to Be a Force of Nature. [Organization] is committing to Being a Force of Nature and pledging to know our risk, take action, and be an example for our families and community by sharing the steps we took. Because we live in an area prone to [identify risk – tornadoes, flash floods, severe thunderstorms] the recent severe weather and tornado outbreaks reminded us that this weather can strike anywhere and at any time.

Mammatus Clouds

These shots were taken May 11, 2011. Click on the image to view.

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