NWS UPDATE: Significant Severe Weather Expected Today. Snow Possible Sat AM.

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Friday, 10 January 2020 9:41 CDT

Bottom Line
Severe weather is expected today across parts of North and Central Texas. Additionally, light snow will be possible north of the I-20 corridor Saturday morning with some light accumulations possible.

Overview
Confidence has increased in potentially a significant severe weather event today/tonight. This is the type of event typically experienced once every couple of years in North and Central Texas.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to impact areas just west of I-35/35W and eastward into East Texas this afternoon and evening. This includes all the major population centers in North and Central Texas.

All severe weather threats will be possible. Large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible with any thunderstorm that develops ahead of the front mainly this afternoon. Thunderstorms should develop in the 2-4 pm timeframe and will quickly develop into a squall line through early evening. This line will pose a high threat of damaging winds with a few embedded brief tornadoes as it moves east through late evening. There will also be a threat for flash flooding mainly from the Metroplex northeast into the Paris/Bonham areas. 2-3” of rainfall will be possible in these areas.

Some snow will be possible Saturday morning as moisture wraps around the departing storm system. Light accumulations are possible, especially for locations north of US-380. Snow may fall as far south as the I-20 corridor.

Area of Concern and Impacts
Severe Weather This Afternoon/Evening
Flash Flood Watch
Light Snow Possible Saturday Morning

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types
Threats

Forecaster Confidence
Confidence

General Timing
Timing

Note: This timeline represents when significant weather may occur in ANY part of our 46-county area.

What We Are Certain Of:

  • A powerful upper level storm system and strong cold front will move through North and Central Texas later today and through tonight.
  • All of the ingredients that produce severe weather, including tornadoes, will be in place this afternoon and evening.
  • Heavy rainfall up to 3 inches, possibly higher could produce isolated instances of flash flooding from DFW, northeast along and north of the I-30 corridor. A flash flood watch remains in effect for this area beginning this afternoon and continuing through late tonight.
  • Severe storms will begin developing around 2pm and continue through the evening hours.

What We Are Less Certain Of:

  • The number of discrete storms ahead of the squall line remains uncertain. Storms that develop ahead of the line will have a higher potential for tornadoes and very large hail.
  • The coverage of snowfall remains uncertain. A band of moderate snowfall could develop quickly produce light accumulations. However, no significant impacts are expected regardless.

FAQ

Will there be tornadoes? A few tornadoes are possible. Any supercell that develops either ahead of the expected line of severe storms, or within the line itself will be capable of producing a tornado.

How big will the hail be? Up to 2” diameter will be possible with any storms that manage to develop ahead of the cold front this afternoon. The hail size within the line of storms along the cold front this evening should generally be less than 1.25”, as we progress through the evening hours.

Will everyone see rainfall? No. Rain chances decrease west of U.S. 281 due to a lack of moisture and timing of the cold front. Everyone east of this area should see rainfall, especially along and east of I-35.

Is there a threat for flooding? Yes, particularly those areas along and north of I-30 and east of I-35/35W. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from noon today through late tonight.

Will there be accumulating snow? Light accumulations remain possible Saturday morning, especially north of US-380.

Are there any winter weather threats I should prepare for? While some snow is possible north of US-380, no significant impacts are expected.

When will the next email update be sent? This will be the last email for this event.

Additional Resources
National Weather Service Fort Worth Homepage
Hourly Forecasts (Click your location)
NWS Fort Worth Winter Briefing Dashboard:
NWS Fort Worth Hazard Pages
NWSChat
Who’s eligible for NWSChat