NWS UPDATE: Showers & Tstorms With Locally Heavy Rainfall Through Wednesday Morning

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Tuesday, 11 February 2020 9:55 CDT

Bottom Line
There is a threat of flooding across parts of the region through Wednesday. The flood threat is highest and most widespread tonight into tomorrow morning primarily east of I-35 and south of I-30.

Overview
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop this morning across all of the area. Pockets of heavy rain will likely accompany thunderstorm activity and could result in some isolated instances of flooding, but will serve to prime and saturate the cold soils across parts of the area. Though severe weather is not expected, a few bouts of small hail are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. There will likely be a brief lull in rainfall this afternoon, but another round of showers and thunderstorms capable of small hail and heavy rain is anticipated later this evening through Wednesday morning. It is this second wave of rainfall that will increase runoff and flooding impacts. These flood impacts are dependent largely on where the heaviest rainfall this morning occurs and if a watch will be needed.

Area of Concern / Expected Timeline
Concern: Increasing Flood Threat Tonight and Early Wednesday
Concern: Forecast Rainfall Amounts

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types
Threats

Forecaster Confidence
Confidence

General Timing
Timing

Note: This timeline represents when significant weather may occur in ANY part of our 46-county area.

What We Are Certain Of:

  • Just about all areas will receive rain over the next 24 to 36 hours.
  • The axis of heaviest rain is expected to be east of I-35 and south of I-30 where rainfall amounts of 2 to 3” with isolated higher amounts are possible through Wednesday a.m.
  • Widespread flash flooding appears unlikely, however, isolated instances may occur across eastern Central Texas into Northeast Texas.

What We Are Less Certain Of:

  • Exactly where the axis of heaviest rainfall actually occurs across across eastern parts of the forecast area. It's quite possible there may be a secondary axis further north.
  • The exact location(s) of where isolated instances of flash flooding occur.

FAQs:

How much rain will there be? Rainfall totals will range between ½ inch from the Big Country to upward of 3” across parts of the Brazos Valley into Northeast Texas.

Will there be severe weather? Severe weather is unlikely, though brief stronger storms may produce small hail due to low freezing levels along with localized, heavier rainfall rates.

Will there be flash flooding? The flash flood threat appears very localized as of now, but we’ll monitor today’s rainfall and forecast rainfall to assess if a greater threat exists and if a watch will be needed for especially the Brazos Valley over into Northeast Texas.

Is river flooding expected? Some minor to moderate lowland flooding is expected along the Trinity, Sulphur, Navasota River, and Sabine tributaries...mostly south and east of the DFW Metroplex. .

When will the next email update be sent? This is the last email for this event, unless the system were to slow down or intensify.

Additional Resources
National Weather Service Fort Worth Homepage
Hourly Forecasts (Click your location)
NWS Fort Worth Winter Briefing Dashboard:
NWS Fort Worth Hazard Pages
NWSChat
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