NWS UPDATE: Strong/Severe Storms Possible Later Today & This Weekend

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Thursday, 25 February 2021 9:56 CDT

Note: This email is being sent to draw your attention to the potential for a few strong and severe storms over the next several days. Normally a partner email would not be issued in this case in particular, but considering the many moving parts currently going on in the region, we wanted to draw your attention to the threat and encourage you to keep an eye on the forecast through at least the weekend.

Bottom Line

There is a threat for strong/severe storms tonight (Thursday night) and again over the weekend.

Overview

  • Showers and storms return to the forecast this afternoon through tonight, and then Saturday afternoon through Sunday
  • Today-Tonight: A few strong or marginally severe storms are possible this evening through tonight (Thursday night).
    • Hail up to 1” will be the main concern as these storms will be elevated
    • Some storms, in particular east of I-35/35E and north of I-20 may produce heavy rainfall that results in flooding of common areas (low-lying, poor drainage)
  • Saturday Afternoon - Saturday Night: A few strong to severe storms are possible south of a warm front. The main area of concern is all of North and Central Texas.
    • Saturday Afternoon: All modes of severe weather may be possible, but hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns.
    • Saturday Night: There will be a threat of marginally severe hail (up to 1”) overnight as elevated instability remains in place.
  • Sunday: A few strong or marginally severe storms are possible along and ahead of a cold front as it moves through the region. The main area of concern is Central and East Texas as a cold front moves across the area.

Area of Concern

Concern: Storm Chances Thursday Night/Early Friday

Concern: Forecast Rainfall

Concern: Weekend Outlook

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types

Threats

Forecaster Confidence

Confidence

General Timing

Timing

What We Are Certain Of:

  • A few strong/storms this evening and tonight may produce hail up to 1” in diameter.
  • Flash flooding is not expected with heavy rainfall tonight but nuisance/common flooding is possible.
  • Strong/severe thunderstorms are also possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

What We Are Less Certain Of:

  • The severe weather threats on Saturday and Sunday.
    • We are especially concerned about the potential threats associated with the warm front on Saturday. Since any severe thunderstorms would likely be along and south of the warm front, the placement of that front will be critical. At this time, we are still not certain of how far north the front will be able to get Saturday afternoon.

When will the next email update be sent?

  • This is the only scheduled email unless the severe weather threat increases over the weekend. Please monitor the forecast and NWSChat for future updates.

Additional Resources
NWS Fort Worth Homepage
Hourly Forecasts (Click your location)
NWS Fort Worth Weather Tabs
NWS Fort Worth Hazard Pages
NWSChat
Who’s eligible for NWSChat
NWS Fort Worth Briefing Page

Jennifer

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Jennifer Dunn
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Fort Worth, TX
weather.gov/fortworth
Facebook: NWSDallasFortWorth
Twitter: @NWSFortWorth

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