NWS UPDATE: Severe Storms Possible Today/Tonight (April 9th)

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Friday, 9 April 2021 9:17 CDT

Bottom Line

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms especially along and to the east of the I-35/I-35W corridor today into tonight.

Overview

  • Thunderstorms are possible as early as this morning north and northeast of the DFW Metroplex. These storms could become strong or severe, capable of producing large hail.
  • Uncertainty remains high regarding the amount of thunderstorms that develop along the dryline. A strong cap will be in place for much of the afternoon. It is entirely possible that the cap holds until late this evening along the cold front.
  • The dryline will be near the I-35 corridor by mid afternoon. If the cap breaks, any storms that develop would be severe with a large hail and damaging wind threat. A tornado or two would also be possible with any supercells.
  • Instability will be high this afternoon, although wind shear may be weaker than previously forecast. This would lower the chances for baseball size hail or larger.
  • Severe weather is likely along a cold front tonight. This threat will be highest to the northeast of the Metroplex after 8 pm. Damaging winds will be the main threat, although some severe hail will also be possible.
  • We will send up supplemental weather balloons to assess the strength of the cap and actual wind shear this afternoon.

Areas of Concern

Concern

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types

Threats

Forecaster Confidence

Confidence

General Timing

Timing

What We Are Certain Of:

  • Not everyone will see severe weather or even rainfall.
  • All of the classic springtime ingredients for severe weather will be in place over the region, including a cap (that will modulate the severe weather threat).
  • If storms can develop, severe weather is likely including damaging winds and large hail.

What We Are Less Certain Of:

  • The coverage of storms. If the cap is too strong there will be fewer storms and a lower severe weather threat.
  • The tornado threat looks low, but could increase depending on the coverage and evolution of the storm system.

When will the next email update be sent?

  • This is the last email for this event.

Additional Resources
NWS Fort Worth Homepage
Hourly Forecasts (Click your location)
NWS Fort Worth Weather Tabs
NWS Fort Worth Hazard Pages
NWSChat
Who’s eligible for NWSChat
NWS Fort Worth Briefing Page

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WX5FWD SKYWARN Team web site