NWS Update: Severe Storm Potential through Tonight

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Wed, 19 June 2019 9:13 CDT

Bottom Line
Severe thunderstorms will be possible across North and Central Texas late this afternoon and evening. Not everyone will see storms today, but everyone in North and Central Texas should be prepared for this severe-weather potential.

Overview
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a weak southward moving frontal boundary late this afternoon and evening. This boundary should extend from the Paris area southwestward into the Metroplex and farther west toward Stephenville by 5 pm. After this morning thunderstorms, we should have ample time to destabilize through the afternoon. Very strong instability will be present by late afternoon and would support thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds. There will be a tornado threat primarily in the vicinity of any boundaries. Thunderstorms are expected to develop between 4-6 pm along the Red River and should expand southwest along the boundary through 9 pm. These storms will likely organize into a cluster and move southeast through the late evening hours. Along with the threat for severe weather, there will be a threat for flash flooding with any storms that persist in any one area.

Areas of Concern & General Timing
Concern

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types
Threats

Forecaster Confidence
Confidence

Timeline
Timing

What We Are Certain Of:

  • A very unstable air mass supportive of strong/severe storms will be in place this afternoon into tonight.
  • The strongest storms during this time will be capable of damaging winds, hail, and localized flooding.

What We Are Less Certain Of:

  • The timing and exact location when storms develop. The Red River area from Gainesville to Paris seems to be the most likely area for initial storm development.
  • Storm coverage is uncertain. Cells may be more isolated than scattered. However, storm outflow boundary collisions and other interactions could help new storms develop quickly, increasing coverage through the evening.

FAQ

Will this be like the last two damaging-wind events in DFW? It is unlikely we will see an organized cluster of storms evolve in the same manner and location like the thunderstorm events on the last two Sundays. With that said, the very unstable environment may support localized areas of damaging downburst winds and hail.

Is there a tornado risk? The tornado risk will be low due to unfavorable low-level flow. However, quick spin-ups can occur along organized lines of storms. With such organized lines, it is important to remember that the risk to life and property posed by damaging straight-line winds is just as high, if not higher, than the risk posed by a quick, embedded tornado.

Is there a threat for flooding? Yes, mainly localized flash flooding due to torrential rain in more robust thunderstorms.

Is it possible that I don’t see any storms in my area? Yes. Storms will likely initially develop along a southward moving boundary late this afternoon. Storm coverage will be less in our northwest counties and greater in our eastern counties.

When will the next email update be sent? This will be the last email for this event.

Logo

Additional Resources
National Weather Service Fort Worth Homepage
Hourly Forecasts (Click your location)
National Weather Service Fort Worth Weather Tabs
NWS Fort Worth Hazard Pages
NWSChat
Who’s eligible for NWSChat