NWS UPDATE: Storms and Heavy Rain Today

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Wednesday, 24 April 2019 10:01 CDT

Bottom Line
One last day of heavy rainfall is expected today, mainly for areas south of Interstate 30. Additionally, there is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, particularly from Waco and Temple/Killeen eastward toward the I-45 corridor.

Overview
A strong upper-level low is expected to continue moving eastward across Texas through the day. Gulf of Mexico moisture will be drawn northward, setting the stage for additional episodes of heavy rain. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through this evening across most of the region. The axis of heavy rain is expected to shift southeastward today, primarily impacting areas across Central and East Texas. Additional accumulations today (Wednesday) are expected to exceed 2 inches in some areas south of the I-20 corridor. Isolated amounts may top 4 inches.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible today, mainly across Central and East Texas. Isolated cells will initially pose a hail threat, but as another complex of storms develops along an advancing cold front this afternoon, there will also be a threat of damaging winds.

Areas of Concern
Concern: A Stormy Wednesday
Concern: Forecast Rainfall Accumulation
Concern: Flash Flood Watch

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types
Threats

General Timing
Timing

Forecaster Confidence
Confidence

What We Are Certain Of:

  • Thunderstorm activity will increase late this morning into the afternoon hours.
  • Some strong and severe storms are possible south of I-20.
  • Moisture-rich air will result in some storms producing heavy rainfall that may cause at least minor flooding problems.
  • The axis of heavy rain will be sliding southward into Central Texas this afternoon. The severe weather threat will also shift southward, primarily to areas south of I-20.

What We Are Less Certain Of:

  • The exact areas with a threat for strong or severe storms remains uncertain given the eventual location of outflow boundaries, which will dictate where storms develop.
  • The tornado potential is low, but given the presence of weak low-level shear, we can’t rule out an isolated tornado across Central Texas this afternoon. This potential will accompany both the isolated cells and the linear complex along the front.
  • The threat for very heavy rainfall and the extent of flash flooding. If the line of storms moves faster than expected, limited training, the heavy rain and flooding threat would be reduced.

FAQ

Is there a tornado threat? The threat for tornadoes is low, but it is spring, and we can’t rule out an isolated tornado, especially across the southeastern counties.

How big could the hail be? Generally less than 1.5”. We do not anticipate hail over 2 inches in diameter.

What storm mode are you expecting? Supercells will be possible initially, then transform into a cluster or line of storms later in the day.

Will everyone see severe weather? Not everyone, but some instances of severe weather are expected south of I-20.

Will there be heavy rainfall and flash flooding? Additional rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches are expected in areas south of the I-20 corridor. Isolated higher amounts will be possible, which could result in flash flooding.

When will the next email update be sent? This is the last email for this event.

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Additional Resources
National Weather Service Fort Worth Homepage
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National Weather Service Fort Worth Weather Tabs
NWS Fort Worth Hazard Pages
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Bianca Villanueva
Meteorologist
NWS Fort Worth