NWS UPDATE: 2019-2020 Winter Outlook

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Saturday, 26 October 2019 2:30 CDT

NOAA’s official winter outlook was released last week by the Climate Prediction Center. The outlook favors above normal temperatures for much of the country with below normal precipitation in the Lone Star State. However, with neither El Niño nor La Niña expected, severe arctic outbreaks tend to be more likely for North and Central Texas.

Winter 2019: U.S. Temperature Outlook

Winter 2019: U.S. Precipitation Outlook

Here is the official press release:

Below is a graphic summarizing the outlook and impacts for North and Central Texas based on the climatological history of the region. The graphic emphasizes that “There are many factors other than ENSO [El Niño/La Niña] that can affect our weather during the winter, but these features can’t be predicted very well beyond a couple of weeks.” Since these pattern changes happen on short time scales, they can result in abrupt changes to our weather during the winter that can’t be projected on seasonal time scales. Our 7-day forecasts may focus on such anomalies as they become apparent. One significant example is the Arctic Oscillation (AO), a sudden shift of which can increase the likelihood of arctic intrusions and may enhance the potential for wintry precipitation.

Winter 2019 - 2020 Outlook

Please let us know if you have any questions.

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